Where do you put the threshold?
A classifier outputs a probability. Turning it into a decision needs a cut-off — and that cut-off is a choice, not a property of the model. Press play to sweep it, then set it yourself. Then change how rare the positive class is.
Decision threshold
predict positive when score ≥ 0.500
Positive class prevalence
Confusion matrix
| Predicted positive | Predicted negative | |
|---|---|---|
| Actually positive | 0True Positive | 0False Negative · Type II |
| Actually negative | 0False Positive · Type I | 0True Negative |
A model that never predicts the positive class at all scores – accuracy here.
The scores the model gives each class never change — only how many negatives there are. The ROC curve and its AUC barely notice. Precision, and the area under the precision–recall curve, collapse.